HIV infection leads to AIDS in all cases, even in long term non-progressors now that we uncovered evidence that even those who are termed non-progressors (less than 1%) eventually start to show signs of AIDS. HIV always win.
Everyone progresses differently... some progressed immediately, even just a month after HIV infection while others go for two decades without ever needing medications.
I think that people who downplay the dangers of HIV and saying it's no longer a death sentence are deluding themselves - HIV is a death sentence - even with medications, you will likely die of complications due to having HIV, if not AIDS. HIV medications accelerate aging by as much as 20 years. HIV is STILL a death sentence, it's just that it's being delayed. The cure is still far away but there's no question that the treatments will become less toxic and more manageable than ever.