Spreading terror has worked before for ISIS, allowing it to punch above its weight. In the weeks before launching an assault on Mosul, Iraq, in June, the group released a series of gory videos showing the militants brutalizing and killing Iraqi soldiers they had captured. It put the scare in the Iraqi army. When ISIS fighters attacked Mosul, Iraqi soldiers turned and fled despite greatly outnumbering the attackers.
Al-Baghdadi was no doubt hoping to pull off the same trick this time. The release of the video to coincide with Jordanian King Abdullah II's visit to the United States may have been deliberate -- the optics of the Jordanian King in Washington served ISIS' narrative of the kingdom being a vassal of the "Crusaders."
But ISIS appears to have badly miscalculated. Al-Kasasbeh was from a prominent Sunni tribal family in Jordan, and his killing has sparked outrage. And if support in Jordan for King Abdullah's involvement in the anti-ISIS coalition was lukewarm before, it is now red-hot. There has also been outrage across the Sunni Arab world, with the head of Egypt's Al-Azhar University, Sunni Islam's most prestigious center of learning, reportedly calling for ISIS fighters to be crucified.
Indeed, while the video has electrified ISIS' most hard-line supporters around the world, and will likely help persuade foreign fighters to join it rather than al Qaeda, it is also likely to shrink its potential pool of recruits. The reality is that burning to death a fellow Muslim is so at odds with mainstream Islamic teaching that even some ISIS sympathizers may have second thoughts. It's a point underscored in November when Sulaimaan Samuel, a mentor in a UK Home Office scheme to prevent radicalization, said ISIS' beheading of British aid worker Alan Henning was putting off young British Muslims from joining the group.
In the long run, ISIS' brutality is not a winning strategy, as al Qaeda has recognized. Exactly a year before the release of the video of the Jordanian pilot being burned alive, al Qaeda's general command severed ties to ISIS for its excess brutality and killing of Muslims.