U.S. to become biggest oil producer - IEA

[DeafBadger]

first of all - there is a finite number of how much oil left. we dont have the technology to measure it.
second - I dont care where oil comes from - there is no reason to have a high priced oil.

Prices are affected by two things -- supply and demand.

Supply is affected by how much production there is and how easy it is to get it. Peak oil affects supply. Terrorism affects supply. Natural disasters affect supply. How much rock you have to drill through affects supply. Etc.

Demand is affected by how many people are driving big cars and trucks. How many countries are converting to motorized transport (which is everyone, today). Recessions reduce the demand also, which is what is going on worldwide. In fact, economists expected higher prices for oil, except that the rest of the world is also in a recession. So when the worldwide recession is over, expect prices to climb.

There is not a lot of extra supply that can be brought online anymore. And even if more supply can be found, those have limits. They will eventually be gone, or reach peak production. Demand will outstrip supply capacity.

This means that the long-term trend is that prices will increase. Maybe it is possible that with new US production and more refineries making gasoline, we might be able to bring prices down for a while. But it will go back up and keep going up.

Everything points to supply restriction and increasing demand. Higher prices are in our future. I think we have to switch to natural gas and nuclear power if we want to keep energy prices reasonable in the long term.

You say "there is no reason." There are plenty of reasons. This is the 21st Century and there are many countries that want oil that weren't big buyers of oil in the 20th Century. Times have changed.

third - we need to increase the amount of biofuel we grow and make.

The problem with biofuel is that it takes up land that was previously used for growing food. This causes food prices to go up.

Biofuel also needs fertilizer to keep growing the crops. Fertilizer requires dino-fuel for energy input.

You can't make significant amounts of biofuel without using dinofuel. It can't replace dinofuel.

In fact, I don't buy biofuel if I can avoid it, because it just makes the problem worse. We need to switch to Natural Gas and Nuclear Energy.

It's sad. I used to think biofuel was the answer to. Sadly, it is not the answer. Maybe in very limited quantities, but you can't get away from using dino-fuel somewhere in the production of biofuels, and it makes food costs go up, too, by limited supply of crops that used to be directed to food production.

We need to get rid of the DAMN alcohol tax so we can have a larger percentage of ethanol so wee can stop using dino oil to mix with the ethanol to avoid the alcohol tax. I want the gas and diesel prices to go down so economy can recover and bring jobs back here in USA. we need it at 2 bucks a gallon or better. period.

I'm not sure that will happen. If it does, it will probably be only for a limited time.

We need to start adapting. There is no need for so many 4-wheel drive pickups on the road, for example. A good set of winter tires on a car is good enough for most winter driving. We need to more efficient cars and to walk, bike, or carpool more. We simply have to adapt.

If we can switch to natural gas and nuclear power, and use electric vehicles, we can work around this problem in the long term.

We are living in different times with different market realities. It is not the 20th Century anymore.

fourth - we will always have a need for oil - we get so many types of distillates from oil after cracking it like grease, plastics. etc.
fifth - IF we become the largest oil producer- then I want the piece of pie for jobs associated with it. I am sick and tired of middle class jobs being gone or not sustainable.

Yes, oil will always be here in some form. Manufacturing is a good use for oil. Burning it up in internal combustion engines might not be the best use for it in the 21st Century.

I suggest thinking about investing in VTSAX for the long term if you want a piece of the pie.

 

[vanglak]

While this may be beneficial for Americans economic growth on short term, I'd limit the use of oil and gas, of course, not on nuclear level, your homes.

This has always been the news in America. No surprises there. But why no mentions of alternatives? There should be a promotion for being environmentally responsible. Our government is lacking support in these areas because they're so focused on our 'needs' of oil.

Go for green energy and organic food and decrease our demand. Otherwise, it'd be the same cycle all over again with only greed and money in mind. Are we going to deplete the resources and panic when you most expected it? People have learned how processing works and how to be a bit more 'green' and they have developed programs to promote that. Other people back in the days thought they were crazy and that it'll never happen. But now, the concept of being 'green' is getting more popular. Start adapting to a lifestyle that is healthy and learn how to make your energy usage efficient . Very, very long run but worth it.

 

[DeafBadger]

Organic is not as green as one might think, but in general, I agree with your message, Vanglak.

We have to adapt, but this does not mean the end of the market economy, or the end of the American economy. Think of all the changes economies have gone through over thousands of years. So many things have been obsoleted or depleted. Economies adapt. It's no different with oil.

 

[vanglak]

Hi, DeafBadger, Thanks for the reply.

Sorry, 'organic' is wrong term on this topic. I was health-obsessed when making that post.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. On how the economy will adapt. The article seems to be a sad reminder on how desperate we are.
Do you think if USA changes toward green movement, it will have impact on dollar value? By being energy-independent? No doubt our dollar value has been devalued so much but that is another topic. We still struggle with this concept and with the negative attitude toward this, we're not doing anything but keep clinging on oil. With the green movement, which I'm not sure if it is familiar to other countries. What goods we got to offer? In relations to other countries, as of 2012, we will be exporting more oil-based fuel. Will our prioritization of green energy be attractive to other countries?

 

[radioman]

Prices are affected by two things -- supply and demand.

Supply is affected by how much production there is and how easy it is to get it. Peak oil affects supply. Terrorism affects supply. Natural disasters affect supply. How much rock you have to drill through affects supply. Etc.

Demand is affected by how many people are driving big cars and trucks. How many countries are converting to motorized transport (which is everyone, today). Recessions reduce the demand also, which is what is going on worldwide. In fact, economists expected higher prices for oil, except that the rest of the world is also in a recession. So when the worldwide recession is over, expect prices to climb.

There is not a lot of extra supply that can be brought online anymore. And even if more supply can be found, those have limits. They will eventually be gone, or reach peak production. Demand will outstrip supply capacity.

This means that the long-term trend is that prices will increase. Maybe it is possible that with new US production and more refineries making gasoline, we might be able to bring prices down for a while. But it will go back up and keep going up.

Everything points to supply restriction and increasing demand. Higher prices are in our future. I think we have to switch to natural gas and nuclear power if we want to keep energy prices reasonable in the long term.

You say "there is no reason." There are plenty of reasons. This is the 21st Century and there are many countries that want oil that weren't big buyers of oil in the 20th Century. Times have changed.



The problem with biofuel is that it takes up land that was previously used for growing food. This causes food prices to go up.

Biofuel also needs fertilizer to keep growing the crops. Fertilizer requires dino-fuel for energy input.

You can't make significant amounts of biofuel without using dinofuel. It can't replace dinofuel.

In fact, I don't buy biofuel if I can avoid it, because it just makes the problem worse. We need to switch to Natural Gas and Nuclear Energy.

It's sad. I used to think biofuel was the answer to. Sadly, it is not the answer. Maybe in very limited quantities, but you can't get away from using dino-fuel somewhere in the production of biofuels, and it makes food costs go up, too, by limited supply of crops that used to be directed to food production.



I'm not sure that will happen. If it does, it will probably be only for a limited time.

We need to start adapting. There is no need for so many 4-wheel drive pickups on the road, for example. A good set of winter tires on a car is good enough for most winter driving. We need to more efficient cars and to walk, bike, or carpool more. We simply have to adapt.

If we can switch to natural gas and nuclear power, and use electric vehicles, we can work around this problem in the long term.

We are living in different times with different market realities. It is not the 20th Century anymore.



Yes, oil will always be here in some form. Manufacturing is a good use for oil. Burning it up in internal combustion engines might not be the best use for it in the 21st Century.

I suggest thinking about investing in VTSAX for the long term if you want a piece of the pie.

We do have the land to grow renewables. its just not viable right now. Switchgrass for example takes 5 years to be ready for a full harvest but can be grown nearly anywhere. diesel can be made from algae - no land needed. There are many large land homeowners with smaller tractors just need right equipment to grow and harvest with. Its just not there anymore unless you go pre 70's era.
Just think - IF we grew ALL of our needs, then we wont be burning oil.
Nobody in world wants to change since its not viable. give me something that is viable and not polluting worse with chemicals. Nuclear? don't get me started on that topic. If the nuclear plant near me has an issue - you will wonder what happened to radioman? is he dead? Right now nuclear is our best option, but we cant handle the leftovers properly and no one wants it.

I wouldnt mind switching over to natural gas vehicles, but again its not viable. The oil companies knows this.

LOL on the winter tires - you are right , we dont need the 4X4 for daily driving, here in NYS we get a fair amount of snow and I laugh at people who freak out over mere few inches of snow and fly off the road. prudence and common sense is needed here.