Eight Retailers That Will Close the Most Stores

TXgolfer said:
A broken clock accurately reflects the time twice a day. :)
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lol :lol:

I take it you're a contrarian investor. :) What's your approach if it's okay to ask?
 
DeafBadger said:
lol :lol:

I take it you're a contrarian investor. :) What's your approach if it's okay to ask?
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as my brother suggested - the best approach is do nothing. don't get involved at all. you wanna make money? go to casinos. your chance is much higher there than in stock market.
 
Jiro said:
as my brother suggested - the best approach is do nothing. don't get involved at all. you wanna make money? go to casinos. your chance is much higher there than in stock market.
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What's your brother's background? Is he an investment broker? Or a "mom and pop" investor who is forever "ruined" by 2008?

I got out of the market in early 2008, before the worst of the losses, so I didn't lose a lot.

I reinvested in beginning of August 2012 (partial reinvestment in July) and I have seen 10.5% return in my portfolio from then through January 2013. Only seven months. I wish I had the knowledge to get back in mid-late 2009. Then I'd be especially happy right now.

Whatever your opinion of the stock market, casinos are far, far worse. :)
 
I never buy any stocks in my life.

Is it good or bad?
 
DeafBadger said:
What's your brother's background? Is he an investment broker? Or a "mom and pop" investor who is forever "ruined" by 2008?

I got out of the market in early 2008, before the worst of the losses, so I didn't lose a lot.

I reinvested in August 2012 and I have seen 10.5% return in my portfolio from then through January 2013. Only seven months. I wish I had the knowledge to get back in mid-late 2009. Then I'd be especially happy right now.
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he works for one of the largest banks and has extensive academic + business backgrounds in finance. his bank does not deal with Bobs and Joes.
 
DeafBadger said:
No, it's not accurate if you mean "precise." It's definitely not accurate when it is in bubble-mode.

Early in a bull market, the prices seem to fairly well reflect what investors believe about the companies they are trading. How the companies financial outlook appears, what their product line looks like, their ability to compete and keep providing value to shareholders, etc.

When a stock mania develops and it turns into a bubble, people buy any stock without regard for what the company's background looks like. At that point, it is no longer an indicator, much less an accurate one. When that happens, be ready for the crash (market correction).
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the only way to get a precise indicator is to be in a same room with board members, CEO, etc.

he lol'ed at people relying on Wall Street Journal papers and Jim Cramer because these information are already outdated and useless.... which is why stock market is volatile. you wanna get rich? two words - insider trading.

all these mess which led to "legalized gambling" began with Merrill Lynch. what happens when you combine a major investment firm and major retailer together? Joe the Plumber can buy stocks.

ultimately... who is to be blamed when a bubble burst happens or when stock market's in a mess? SEC.
 
DeafBadger said:
lol :lol:

I take it you're a contrarian investor. :)
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Pretty much.

Research, tons of research. That is why Jiro's brother is right for the most part. If however, someone really really enjoys charts and news it can be quite fun.
 
Jiro said:
the only way to get a precise indicator is to be in a same room with board members, CEO, etc.

he lol'ed at people relying on Wall Street Journal papers and Jim Cramer because these information are already outdated and useless.... which is why stock market is volatile. you wanna get rich? two words - inside trading.

all these mess which led to "legalized gambling" began with Merrill Lynch. what happens when you combine a major investment firm and major retailer together? Joe the Plumber can buy stocks.
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Cramer did nail Apple. He was the first to jump on Apple and people laughed when he said Apple would hit 300. Of course it more than doubled that. But for the most part I agree with your brother on this too. If you can't do your own research and trust it, go with a pro.
 
Foxrac said:
I never buy any stocks in my life.

Is it good or bad?
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I do not buy stocks themselves. I buy low-cost index funds, specifically VTSAX (or its cousin, VTSMX).

I feel that I do not have the time, nor inclination to study each and every company to evaluate their market fitness.

So I buy the whole market by buying the fund. If one badly-run company fouls up and dies, it is dropped from the fund, but I still own the fund and the overall value is still okay. (I would only be in trouble if I owned the company's stock directly.)

(This next part is sort of "technical trading," so most people should leave it alone. Most people should not do this.)

I go to bigcharts.com a couple times a month and apply 200-day and 50-day moving averages to the VTSAX chart. This gives me an idea how the market is doing overall.

I look at two things when the chart is moving up. I look at the 50-day moving average line and see whether the next "wave" is higher or lower than the previous wave. If it's higher, I relax. If it's lower, I start to expect a serious market decline.

If I see the lower wave, I start looking for the next "bad" sign, which is when the 50-day line goes down and crosses the 200-day line. That's called a "Dead Cross."

I have tentatively decided that the next time I see those two things develop close together, I will sell, expecting another major market sell-off.

I will not sell if I have only one of these. Because there are too many false signals, so I need to see both before I act.

When the market is down (like in 2008), I would look for when the 50-day line moves up and crosses the 200-day line. This is called a "Golden Cross." Generally, an auspicious moment to buy back in. Of course, for a fund like VTSAX, it is pretty obvious that $18 per share is a really, really good price, regardless of whether there is a buy signal or not.

Right now, this is what the VTSAX chart looks like with 50-day and 200-day moving averages applied.

big-4.chart.gif
 
TXgolfer said:
Pretty much.

Research, tons of research. That is why Jiro's brother is right for the most part. If however, someone really really enjoys charts and news it can be quite fun.
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bingo.

charts, numbers, this and that, and more numbers... that's the only way to get an idea for an indicator of the economy and to make some decent money. to really get into it, you'd have to pretty much spend your entire time till closing time to crunching numbers, networking around, and getting your info from a certain reliable source.

information + number crunching (to make sure all numbers add up) is how you make money. It's as exhilarating as gambling. My dad's friend did this for like a year and had ulcers from stress. :ugh:
 
Jiro said:
the only way to get a precise indicator is to be in a same room with board members, CEO, etc.

he lol'ed at people relying on Wall Street Journal papers and Jim Cramer because these information are already outdated and useless.... which is why stock market is volatile. you wanna get rich? two words - insider trading.

all these mess which led to "legalized gambling" began with Merrill Lynch. what happens when you combine a major investment firm and major retailer together? Joe the Plumber can buy stocks.

ultimately... who is to be blamed when a bubble burst happens or when stock market's in a mess? SEC.
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Right, it's dated info by then and usually already reflected in the stock price before you are even having your morning coffee. I am not interested in that level of involvement (at least not at this point in my life), so I buy funds instead. I try to keep it simple.
 
DeafBadger said:
Right, it's dated info by then and usually already reflected in the stock price before you are even having your morning coffee. I am not interested in that level of involvement (at least not at this point in my life), so I buy funds instead. I try to keep it simple.
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Wise.
 
Foxrac said:
I never buy any stocks in my life.

Is it good or bad?
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Bad, I think.

If you were going to invest, I would say, invest in something like VTSAX, invest a set sum each month, and don't get rattled by the market news. It goes down it goes up. It goes down again and it goes up again. It's like the tide. No one says the ocean will never come back. No one says the ocean will never go out, either.

Save some money in the fund each month, when the market is going up and when it is going down, too. Just keep doing it every month and don't even look at the news.

Keep doing that for 20-30 years or more.

I think you'll be okay and pleasantly surprised at the nest egg you've built.

About 5 or so years before you retire, break it up into about 50% stocks (VTSAX), 25% real estate (VGSLX), 20% bonds (VBTLX), and 5% cash (either in the bank or in VMMXX).

Rebalance once a year.

Just my opinion.

I would not suggest anything but the previous for the average investor.

(Incidentally, when you retire is only a question of how much you have saved... Nothing says that it has to be age 65...)

---

My technical charting efforts (in the other post above) are not really necessary and it's just me trying to find an edge and get better returns. But most people shouldn't chart, because most people can't control their emotions and are likely to fudge it up. Better to just set their monthly investments and forget it.
 
I have obviously no understanding in stocks and shares, so no one teach me about those, even my parent and teachers didn't teach me. :dunno:
 
Foxrac said:
I have obviously no understanding in stocks and shares, so no one teach me about those, even my parent and teachers didn't teach me. :dunno:
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No one taught me either. I just kept reading, and I probably got older too. I'm not interested in get-rich-quick stock schemes anymore. ;)

I think what I described will work for the average person. I could be wrong. Study it yourself and see what you think.
 
Jiro said:
eh there will be something else like..... small businesses
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small businesses are not doing very good either. We have shops that been empty for awhile . The cards and gifts stores are not doing very good , we have none now that both of them closes up.
 
whatdidyousay! said:
small businesses are not doing very good either. We have shops that been empty for awhile . The cards and gifts stores are not doing very good , we have none now that both of them closes up.
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then it's because the owners were not able to adapt and/or the city council did not do a very good job to retain them. many small businesses and family-owned businesses are still thriving around here. in fact - some of them have appeared in national news such as furniture factory (or warehouse) about 20 min from me.
 
Jiro said:
then it's because the owners were not able to adapt and/or the city council did not do a very good job to retain them. many small businesses and family-owned businesses are still thriving around here. in fact - some of them have appeared in national news such as furniture factory (or warehouse) about 20 min from me.
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Yup, also your area should be lucky because of no Walmart and Walmart did destroyed the small businesses in my area.
 
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